Investment Strategy

Left behind by the 2023 stock-market rally? Use this type of ETF to play catch-up, says BofA.

Bank of America says it expects stock-market strength to broaden further

Investors may be better off owning the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index in the second half of 2023, after the popular stock-market gauge soared on narrow breadth during the first six months of the year, according to BofA Global Research.

“Extreme bearishness into 2023 led to a big rally” in the first half, said BofA equity and quant strategists led by Savita Subramanian in a new note. “Despite some improvement in sentiment, Wall St. is still largely cautious on equities, which suggests the pain trade is still to the upside.”

Just 25% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in the first six months of 2023, marking the narrowest first-half breadth ever, according to the BofA note. The S&P 500 Equal Weight index SP500EW, 0.88% widely lagged over that period, although it outperformed in June.

“We expect breadth to continue to broaden out as seen in June, and expect the equal-weighted index to outperform the cap-weighted index” in the second half of 2023, the strategists said.

The S&P 500’s gains this year have been driven by megacap stocks such as Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.09%, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -1.60%, Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -2.72% GOOGL, -2.54%, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -2.04%, Nvidia Corp. NVDA, -0.76%, Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.76% and Facebook and Instagram — and, now, Threads — parent Meta Platforms Inc. META, +1.23%.

These seven names make up more than a quarter of the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, “meaning that together they influence index returns more than any other sector save information technology,” DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe said in a note emailed Thursday. The tech sector has a 28.2% weight, she said.

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