ZINGER KEY POINTS
- An AI model correctly predicted five of five NFL Playoff matchups.
- Odds on DraftKings for Super Bowl LVII list the Eagles favored by 1.5 points.
The use cases for artificial intelligence continue to rise, with ChatGPT among the most-discussed topics at the start of 2023. One area that could use AI is sports with use cases for sports betting, fan engagement and more. Here’s what one Ark Invest portfolio manager told Benzinga.
What Happened: The NFL season is nearing its grand finale, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles set to battle in Super Bowl LVII. The game will air on Fox, a unit of Fox Corporation
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, on Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023.
Millions of dollars will be bet across the U.S. on the outcome of the game and a ton of prop bets like the coin toss and color of the Gatorade poured on the winning couch. Those looking for a competitive edge in the betting market may turn to an artificial intelligence chatbot to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl.
Ark Invest Associate Portfolio Manager Nick Grous posted on Twitter during the NFL Playoffs about using OpenAI to predict the outcome of the playoff matchups.
Davinci, which is owned by ChatGPT parent OpenAI, was used by Grous to predict the outcomes of three National Football League playoff games in the divisional playoffs.
Grous gave stats about two NFL playoff teams to Davinci and was told the winner and winning margin of their games. In the NFL Divisional Playoffs, the AI model went a perfect three-for-three in predictions and called out one outcome within a point of the actual winning margin.
The Ark portfolio manager did the same exercise in the NFL conference championship matchups, with the AI model correctly predicting the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to win their respective games.
Grous told Benzinga that the Ark analyst team has brainstorming sessions on Friday and artificial intelligence has been a “big topic of discussion.”
“As we see more tools released, analysts have been working on use cases for internal and research perspectives,” Grous said. “We need to understand these technologies, so we can understand what the TAM (total addressable market) can be.”
Grous said that given his coverage of the sports betting sector for Ark Invest, he decided to test AI for NFL playoff matchups.
“I started to think about how I could work around and ask it to predict, or give insight, based on current data.”
Grous told Benzinga the Davinci model was using stale data through the end of 2021 so the outcomes it was providing were based on old stats, so instead he fed the AI offensive and defensive stats of 2022 without naming the teams or which one was playing at home.
“It’s yielded some really interesting results. Whether that’s lucky, going 5 for 5, or picking up on an edge, is hard to tell at this point.”
Super Bowl Prediction: After testing an AI model that went a perfect 100% in five predictions during the NFL playoffs, it would come naturally for Grous to test the model to find out who’s going to win Super Bowl LVII.
Grous gave the Davinci AI model the offensive, defensive and special teams stats for the Chiefs and Eagles and prompted it to give a prediction on who would win.
“It’s given me different teams to win and a different reason each time. It’s always been different,” Grous said.
The Ark Invest portfolio manager said he has changed the wording of the prompt, the order of the data, and which team is team A versus team B. The outcomes keep changing on who will win and why they will win.
“It is giving me an answer through. It is understanding the data I’m giving it.”
Grous said this means the teams could be so evenly matched by the data that the AI model cannot find an edge in the potential winner.
“These two teams are so closely matched, even Vegas is saying this is a coin toss game.”
Odds on DraftKings Inc
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for Super Bowl LVII list the Eagles favored by 1.5 points at the time of writing, which Grous says is similar to what his model shows.
“It’s saying it’s a coin toss, a pick-em.”
What’s Next: When analyzing the models and talking about artificial intelligence, Grous sees the use cases for companies like OpenAI expanding. OpenAI recently took an investment of $10 billion from Microsoft Corporation
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and is part of the company’s plan to grow its Bing search engine to better compete with Google
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.
“I don’t think anyone internally was thinking you could use this for sports betting in some capacity,” Grous said.
Grous sees sportsbooks and bettors testing the data with AI chatbots to see if they can give an edge on outcomes. Grous does caution that it is still early, and going 5 for 5 so far in NFL games may have been lucky.
“I wouldn’t place too much reliance on it yet.”
Outside of sports betting, Grous sees AI being used by sports leagues and teams.
“This could be an engagement too for leagues to use. I look at sports betting as a way of fan engagement.”
Grous also said a natural extension of sports betting could be fantasy sports.
“How would ChatGPT pick a fantasy team if they could, using all the data out there? That’s where this could be headed.”
Grous is hoping to have others follow up on his side project by testing AI for sports betting, since he’s limited by time commitments. Although, Grous wouldn’t rule out using AI for March Madness predictions.
“Could train it to weight something more like one team’s 3-pointers.”
With more teams turning to data and analytics to get an edge in player signings, players drafted and winning games, Grous said AI could help lead “The Moneyball 2.0 Revolution,” referencing Oakland A’s executive Billy Beane, who used data to construct a baseball team.
Ark Invest sees artificial intelligence as one of the Big Ideas for 2023. The company’s Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF
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invests in companies using AI and automation to disrupt sectors.
