Just over 12 months ago, Russian military forces invaded Ukraine, creating the largest land war since 1945, sending stock markets down, gold and energy prices up, and forcing European and other regions’ leaders into re-thinking defence strategy. By an eerie coincidence, 24 February is also the date that main military operations commenced under Operation Desert Storm in 1991, leading to the speedy removal of Saddam Hussein’s forces from Kuwait.
I talked with my colleague, ClearView Financial Media’s CEO Stephen Harris, here in the days immediately after Russia’s invasion, and it is worth noting a few points. Firstly, while energy prices skyrocketed after the invasion, and added to a sense of crisis in Europe – such as Germany, which was heavily dependent on Russian natural gas – some of the pressures have since eased. A relatively mild winter, a pivot of supply chains, efficiency moves and the deep resources of US natural gas fracking, have helped assuage that problem. Natural gas prices have fallen significantly, to levels in the US, for example, not seen since the early days of the pandemic.
Ironies abound. The ill-fated UK premiership of Liz Truss last September was in part hobbled from the start by a promise to cap UK energy bills for two years. The prospect of a vast hit to the Treasury helped spook bond markets and, aided to some poor communications and moves on tax, put the skids under her premiership. But now it looks as if the energy price cap policy will be a lot less expensive. That said, Western governments in particular aren’t out of the woods. Germany must still consider whether running down nuclear energy without a baseload capacity to fill the gap makes sense. France must replenish and build new nuclear stations, given the ageing of its nuclear fleet. The US has to consider this route, but for the time being, energy-hungry states such as California appear to be detached from reality. There’s no point pushing for electric vehicles and all the rest if you cannot charge up a car. (One suspects that some of the net-zero agenda won’t work unless travel and other activity falls drastically, and that’s not going to be politically acceptable, I think, if public transport isn’t up to scratch.)
Fans of ESG investing have some difficult decisions to confront, given that wind and solar power, both weather-dependent, cannot power modern industrial nations without baseload power and very big batteries. That means some fossil fuel use and nuclear power have to remain on the table for the foreseeable future. I expect the wealth management sector will have to reflect on these realities. I am already hearing from firms that there has been a bit of a pause in the ESG evangelising and more focus on delivery and reporting. This is a healthy shift, and in the long run, something that serious advocates of sustainability will applaud.
With that out of the way, we have had a busy period and there’s plenty to look forward to. I have been interviewing scores of wealth management specialists handling digital assets, cryptocurrencies and associated tech. After all the problems of FTX, stablecoins and the tech selloff last year, there’s still plenty of enthusiasm, but tempered by a more sober focus on volatility, regulatory clarity and control. I have also been taking the temperature from the Swiss wealth management sector as it adjusts to a new regulatory landscape. In Asia during March we’ve got a big interview coming with DBS and we are keeping a close eye on how the family offices market continues to evolve in Singapore.
Switching to North America, late February and March is always busy on the tax preparation and filing front, and expect to see stories and commentaries about tax, wealth planning and other topics. We had a recent article about proposed changes to how Californians can use out-of-state trusts, and this is the sort of granular information readers expect. We also continue to track the busy period of M&A activity in North American wealth management. There are also signs of US private equity houses doing deals in Europe, where valuations on a relative basis look attractive.
In Europe, my colleague Amanda Cheesley will be travelling in Paris to meet many wealth management and private banking figures, giving a close view on the French sector. Down the line, I want to revisit Germany’s large domestic market, such as its family offices. This can all too easily fly under the radar.
Most of the major banks have reported results and, as expected, falling markets in 2022 have hit assets under management, while rising interest margins have helped some of the results. A return to a more conventional interest rate environment is positive news in the medium term in light of how it affects the pricing of risk. Twelve years of ultra-low interest rates created asset bubbles and distortions – it had to end.
Original article: https://www.wealthbriefing.com/html/article.php?id=197119#.Y_vC1F7MJhE
